AUDJPY Forecast & AUD/JPY Price Prediction May 2026
Quick Summary
- Current AUD/JPY price: ¥113.49
- Technical bias: Bearish — RSI at 49.9 (Neutral), MACD histogram bearish.
- Key resistance at ¥113.58–¥113.67; support at ¥113.42 and ¥113.36.
- Weekly pivot range: ¥112.77 to ¥114.42. Key drivers: RBA-BoJ rate differential, iron ore demand, and risk sentiment.
AI Summary
This page provides the AUDJPY (AUD/JPY) price forecast for May 2026. Current price: ¥113.49. Technical bias: Bearish (RSI: 49.9, MACD: Bearish). Key daily pivot: ¥113.51. Daily resistance: R1 ¥113.58, R2 ¥113.67. Daily support: S1 ¥113.42, S2 ¥113.36. Weekly range: ¥112.10 to ¥115.41. Key drivers include RBA and BoJ monetary policy, commodity prices (especially iron ore), and risk sentiment.
Key Levels by Timeframe
| Timeframe | Resistance | Pivot | Support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term (Daily) | ¥113.58 | ¥113.51 | ¥113.42 |
| Medium-term (Daily) | ¥113.67 | ¥113.51 | ¥113.36 |
| Swing (Weekly) | ¥114.42 | ¥113.75 | ¥112.77 |
| Position (Weekly) | ¥115.41 | ¥113.75 | ¥112.10 |
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance
- ¥113.58Daily R1
- ¥113.67Daily R2
- ¥115.41Weekly R2 (Strong)
Support
- ¥113.42Daily S1
- ¥113.36Daily S2
- ¥112.10Weekly S2 (Strong)
Scenarios
Bullish
Target: ¥115.41
If AUD/JPY sustains above daily R1 at ¥113.58, next target is daily R2 at ¥113.67. A break above weekly R1 at ¥114.42 opens the path toward weekly R2 at ¥115.41. RBA holding rates steady while BoJ remains dovish, combined with strong iron ore demand, supports this scenario.
Neutral / Base
Target: ¥113.51
Range-bound between daily S1 at ¥113.42 and daily R1 at ¥113.58, with the pivot at ¥113.51 acting as the equilibrium. Mixed signals from RBA and BoJ keep the pair consolidating.
Bearish
Target: ¥112.10
A break below daily S1 at ¥113.42 targets daily S2 at ¥113.36. Sustained selling toward weekly S1 at ¥112.77 and S2 at ¥112.10. BoJ hawkish pivot, global risk-off, or falling commodity prices drive this outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affect AUD/JPY?
The RBA sets Australian interest rates, which directly impact the AUD side of the pair. When the RBA raises rates or signals a hawkish stance, AUD strengthens against JPY. Conversely, rate cuts or dovish guidance weaken AUD. Traders watch RBA meeting minutes, employment data, and inflation reports to anticipate policy changes and their impact on AUDJPY.
Why does the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy matter for AUD/JPY?
The BoJ controls Japanese monetary policy and has maintained ultra-low interest rates for years, making JPY a popular funding currency for carry trades. Any shift toward rate normalization by the BoJ strengthens JPY and pressures AUD/JPY lower. Key indicators include BoJ policy meetings, Japanese CPI, and yield curve control adjustments.
How do commodity prices influence AUD/JPY?
Australia is a major commodity exporter, particularly iron ore, coal, and LNG. Rising commodity prices boost Australian export revenue and strengthen AUD. Since Japan is a major commodity importer, higher prices can weaken JPY. This double effect makes AUD/JPY particularly sensitive to commodity cycles, especially iron ore prices which are closely tied to Chinese demand.
What role does risk sentiment play in AUD/JPY movements?
AUD/JPY is considered a risk barometer in forex markets. AUD is a risk-on currency (strengthens when markets are optimistic), while JPY is a safe-haven currency (strengthens during market stress). During risk-on periods, AUD/JPY tends to rise; during risk-off periods (geopolitical tensions, market crashes), JPY strengthens and AUD/JPY falls. Stock market indices and VIX are useful sentiment gauges.